Value Added in Motion: Macroeconomic Implications of Energy Price Trajectories

18 Pages Posted: 2 Oct 2017

See all articles by Lionel Gérard Fontagné

Lionel Gérard Fontagné

Banque de France; CEPII; University of Paris 1 Panthéon Sorbonne; Paris School of Economics

Jean Foure

Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Info. Internationales (CEPII)

Gianluca Santoni

Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Info. Internationales (CEPII)

Date Written: January 1, 2017

Abstract

Taking a 2035 horizon, we examine how world energy consumption and emission patterns will be shaped by the changing demand and technological capabilities of different regions. We combine a convergence model fitting three production factors (capital, labour and energy) and two factor-specific productivities, along with a dynamic CGE model of the world economy. We consider three possible “worlds” with very different energy scarcity, and how Copenhagen pledges change economic agents’ calculus in each of these three situations. We find that the most dramatic changes in terms of location of value added are to be expected from the intrinsic differences among the three considered “worlds”, not so much in terms of economic impact of environmental pledges.

Keywords: Growth, Macroeconomic Projections, long run, global economy

JEL Classification: E23, E27, F02, F47

Suggested Citation

Fontagné, Lionel and Foure, Jean and Santoni, Gianluca, Value Added in Motion: Macroeconomic Implications of Energy Price Trajectories (January 1, 2017). Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano Development Studies Working Paper No. 426, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3044593 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3044593

Lionel Fontagné

Banque de France ( email )

Paris
France

HOME PAGE: http://www.lionel-fontagne.eu/

CEPII ( email )

9 Rue Georges Pitard
Paris, 75015
France
+33 1 53 68 55 06 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://lionelfontagne.weebly.com/

Paris School of Economics ( email )

48 Boulevard Jourdan
Paris, 75014 75014
France
+33 1 44 07 89 94 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://lionelfontagne.weebly.com/

University of Paris 1 Panthéon Sorbonne ( email )

Maison des Sciences Economiques
106-112 Bd de l'Hôpital
Paris, 75013
France
+33 1 44 07 89 94 (Phone)
+33 1 53 68 55 01 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://lionelfontagne.weebly.com/

Jean Foure

Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Info. Internationales (CEPII) ( email )

9 rue Georges Pitard
Paris Cedex 15, F-75015
France

Gianluca Santoni (Contact Author)

Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Info. Internationales (CEPII) ( email )

9 rue Georges Pitard
Paris Cedex 15, F-75015
France

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