Probability Analysis of Monthly Rainfall on Seasonal Monsoon in Pakistan

International Journal of Climatology, 34: 827–834 (2014)

Posted: 26 Oct 2017

See all articles by Ishfaq Ahmad

Ishfaq Ahmad

International Islamic University, Islamabad

Iram Mahmood

National University of Sciences and Technology (NUST)

Imran Riaz Malik

Capital University of Science and Technology

Irshad Arshad

International Islamic University, Islamabad

Ehtasham ul Haq

International Islamic University, Islamabad

Zahid Iqbal

International Islamic University, Islamabad

Date Written: March 17, 2012

Abstract

Pakistan experiences the southwest monsoon normally from July to September every year. In this paper, we analyze the effect of monthly rainfall for the months of July, August and September on overall seasonal monsoon for the period of 1960 – 2006 across 37 different meteorological stations of Pakistan. The statistical results are based on the notion of conditional probability. We find conditional probabilities of seasonal monsoon to be in excess, deficient and normal when the monthly rainfall of July, August and September is considered to be in excess and deficient. When rainfall in the months of July and August is in excess the seasonal monsoon behavior is also likely to be in excess and probabilities of seasonal monsoon to be deficient are zero for most of the meteorological stations. Similarly, when rainfall in the months of July and August is considered to be deficient the seasonal monsoon behavior is also likely to be deficient and probabilities of seasonal monsoon to be in excess are zero for most of the meteorological stations.

Keywords: Conditional Probability; Deficient; Excess; Monsoon

Suggested Citation

Ahmad, Ishfaq and Mahmood, Iram and Malik, Imran Riaz and Arshad, Irshad and ul Haq, Ehtasham and Iqbal, Zahid, Probability Analysis of Monthly Rainfall on Seasonal Monsoon in Pakistan (March 17, 2012). International Journal of Climatology, 34: 827–834 (2014), Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3054636

Ishfaq Ahmad

International Islamic University, Islamabad ( email )

PO Box 1243
Sector H-10
Islamabad, Kpk 44000
Pakistan

Iram Mahmood

National University of Sciences and Technology (NUST)

Sector H-12
Islamabad, 44000
Pakistan

Imran Riaz Malik (Contact Author)

Capital University of Science and Technology ( email )

Kahuta Road
Islamabad, 46000
Pakistan

Irshad Arshad

International Islamic University, Islamabad

PO Box 1243
Sector H-10
Islamabad, Kpk 44000
Pakistan

Ehtasham Ul Haq

International Islamic University, Islamabad

PO Box 1243
Sector H-10
Islamabad, Kpk 44000
Pakistan

Zahid Iqbal

International Islamic University, Islamabad

PO Box 1243
Sector H-10
Islamabad, Kpk 44000
Pakistan

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