The Empirical Economic Growth Literature: Robustness, Significance and Size

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper No. TI 2002-040/3

30 Pages Posted: 9 May 2002

See all articles by Raymond J.G.M. Florax

Raymond J.G.M. Florax

Purdue University; VU University Amsterdam - Department of Spatial Economics; Tinbergen Institute

Henri L. F. de Groot

Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; Tinbergen Institute

Reinout Heijungs

Leiden University - Centre of Environmental Science (CML); VU University Amsterdam

Date Written: 2002

Abstract

The empirical economic growth literature is criticized for its lack of robustness. For different definitions of robustness, conclusions vary from "almost every correlation is fragile" to "a substantial number of explanatory variables are robust." We re-analyze the empirical results of the economic growth literature for various alternative definitions of robustness using quasi-experiments. The analysis pertains to sign, size and significance of the effects, and we relax the quasi-experimental procedure by no longer applying a set of 'fixed' variables. Response surface analyses of the quasi-experiments reveal that the number of robust variables is limited, the effects crucially depend on the specification of conditioning variables, and the default specification based on the convergence/catch-up model is associated with estimated effects of conditioning variables that constitute outliers.

Keywords: economic growth, sensitivity analysis, robustness, response surface

JEL Classification: C52, C90, O11, O40

Suggested Citation

Florax, Raymond J.G.M. and de Groot, Henri L.F. and Heijungs, Reinout and Heijungs, Reinout, The Empirical Economic Growth Literature: Robustness, Significance and Size (2002). Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper No. TI 2002-040/3, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=308659 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.308659

Raymond J.G.M. Florax (Contact Author)

Purdue University ( email )

West Lafayette, IN 47907-1145
United States
(765) 494-4300 (Phone)
(765) 494-9176 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://web.ics.purdue.edu/~rflorax/

VU University Amsterdam - Department of Spatial Economics ( email )

De Boelelaan 1105
1081HV Amsterdam
Netherlands
+31 20 444 6092 (Phone)
+31 20 444 6004 (Fax)

Tinbergen Institute

Burg. Oudlaan 50
Rotterdam, 3062 PA
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Henri L.F. De Groot

Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam ( email )

De Boelelaan 1105
Amsterdam, 1081 HV
Netherlands
0640494981 (Phone)
2135 DL (Fax)

Tinbergen Institute

Gustav Mahlerplein 17
Amsterdam, 1082 MS
Netherlands

Reinout Heijungs

VU University Amsterdam ( email )

Netherlands

Leiden University - Centre of Environmental Science (CML) ( email )

2300 RA Leiden
Netherlands
+31 71 5277432 (Phone)