From Winning an Election to Political Engagement

Abstract

The outcome of any election leads naturally to winners and losers. We explore the effect of winning (or losing) an election on future political participation. We compare the behavior of counties supporting winning gubernatorial candidates to counties supporting losing gubernatorial candidates for close gubernatorial elections from 1990 to today, using a regression discontinuity design. Winning counties experience (i) an increase in voters' participation compared to losing counties, but (ii) no significant change in the composition of votes, suggesting that (i) extends to voters of all persuasions. The effect is (iii) decreasing with the level of support to the winning party and (iv) is muted in more polarized environments, i.e., post 2000.