Is Fertility a Leading Economic Indicator?
47 Pages Posted: 28 Feb 2018 Last revised: 20 Jul 2023
There are 2 versions of this paper
Is Fertility a Leading Economic Indicator?
Number of pages: 46
Posted: 02 Apr 2018
Last Revised: 06 Jan 2021
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173
Date Written: February 2018
Abstract
Many papers show that aggregate fertility is pro-cyclical over the business cycle. In this paper we do something else: using data on more than 100 million births and focusing on within-year changes in fertility, we show that for recent recessions in the United States, the growth rate for conceptions begins to fall several quarters prior to economic decline. Our findings suggest that fertility behavior is more forward-looking and sensitive to changes in short-run expectations about the economy than previously thought.
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Buckles, Kasey and Hungerman, Daniel M. and Lugauer, Steven, Is Fertility a Leading Economic Indicator? (February 2018). NBER Working Paper No. w24355, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3131065
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