An Analysis of a War
10 Pages Posted: 31 Mar 2018
Date Written: March 27, 2018
Abstract
In this study, we conduct a preliminary investigation of coalition action against ISIS, which will provide a foundation for further analysis. This work has two goals. One is to understand when the tide turned against ISIS, and the other (and lesser) goal is to see and understand how to model the war on Terror mathematically. By examining the data we show that ISIS expansion was significantly and categorically retarded by mid-2015, and its back (as a nation-state, but not as a terrorist organization) was broken by mid-2016.
Keywords: ISIS, counterinsurgency, modeling
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Rivin, Igor and Seaton, Andrew, An Analysis of a War (March 27, 2018). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3150129 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3150129
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