An Analysis of a War

10 Pages Posted: 31 Mar 2018

See all articles by Igor Rivin

Igor Rivin

Temple University - Mathematics Department

Andrew Seaton

Independent

Date Written: March 27, 2018

Abstract

In this study, we conduct a preliminary investigation of coalition action against ISIS, which will provide a foundation for further analysis. This work has two goals. One is to understand when the tide turned against ISIS, and the other (and lesser) goal is to see and understand how to model the war on Terror mathematically. By examining the data we show that ISIS expansion was significantly and categorically retarded by mid-2015, and its back (as a nation-state, but not as a terrorist organization) was broken by mid-2016.

Keywords: ISIS, counterinsurgency, modeling

Suggested Citation

Rivin, Igor and Seaton, Andrew, An Analysis of a War (March 27, 2018). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3150129 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3150129

Igor Rivin (Contact Author)

Temple University - Mathematics Department ( email )

Wachman Hall
1805 North Broad Street
Philadelphia, PA 19122
United States

Andrew Seaton

Independent ( email )

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