Foreign Exchange Market Contagion in the Asian Crisis: A Regression-Based Approach

Abstract

This paper investigates whether there was contagion through the foreign exchange market in the Asian crisis, and, if so, determines the contribution of contagion to the crisis. More specifically, we examine whether the effect of the exchange market pressure (EMP) of Thailand, the origin of the crisis, on the EMP of four Asian crisis countries increased during the crisis. Instead of measuring contagion by the commonly used correlation coefficients, we apply regression analysis. To control for the impact of macroeconomic fundamentals, we construct a time-varying indicator measuring the fragility of each economy. Additionally, we control for spillovers and common external shocks. We find evidence of contagion from Thailand to Indonesia and Malaysia, with 13 and 21 percent of the pressure on the respective currencies attributable to contagion. For Korea and the Philippines there is no evidence of contagion.

Keywords: contagion, exchange market pressure, Asian crisis, regression

JEL Classification: F31, F40, G15