Reflections on the Fog of (Cyber)War

Abstract

This paper aims at assessing some widespread assertions related to the highly controversial issue of cyberwar. It does so by using the following approach: First, it reviews the original concept of cyberwar according to its original employ. Second, it presents three general controversial assertions synthesized from the qualitative content analysis of selected academic publications, landmark documents, and news accounts. These assertions are: (a) Cyberspace is a new operational domain for waging war; (b) Cyber warfare can be as severe as conventional warfare; and (c) Cyber warfare can be waged both by state and non-state actors. Each of the assertions is scrutinized according to supportive or contradictory logical, theoretical and empirical evidence in the following section. Finally, the paper consolidates findings and points out paths for furthering inquiry and policy development in the field. Deliberately, this text hires the same provocative title employed in the past by some journalistic accounts of the phenomenon. (Tennant, 2009; Morozov, 2009; Greenemeier, 2011; Valeriano & Maness, 2012 1 ) This repetition has two reasons. Firstly, it seeks to highlight the fact that “the fog” encompasses not only the real uncertainties surrounding the interrelations between cyberspace and military planning and operation, but also a great deal of confusion and misunderstanding generated by the works of commentators, scholars, and technicians who approach the topic. Secondly, it aims at reconnecting the idea of “fog of war” to its Clausewitzian roots, highlighting the importance of theoretical debates on the securitization of cyberspace.

Keywords: War, Clausewitz, Cyberspace, Cyberwar

JEL Classification: F5