International Spillovers from Proposed US Tax Reforms

Abstract

This article provides an overview of recent proposals for reform of the US tax system, focusing on the potential implications for the rest of the world if these proposals were to be enacted. The most widely discussed recent proposal is related to an idea — the destination-based cash flow tax (DBCFT) — that has been prominent in academic discussions of business tax reform. While it has many important virtues in terms of promoting economic efficiency, its political appeal is more likely to be due to specific features of Congressional budget rules and to misconceptions among politicians about the trade effects of foreign countries’ VAT border adjustments. This article discusses the international spillovers that this and related proposals would create, involving profit shifting into the US and changes to the location of economic activity. The article also presents a critical evaluation of these proposals from the standpoint of widely accepted principles of tax policy, and draws some lessons from the US debate that may be relevant for other countries contemplating company tax reform. An important general theme of this discussion is that business taxation helps shape households’ tax planning opportunities, and thereby constrains the types of personal taxes that can be imposed. The future of the company tax, both in the US and elsewhere, is thus inextricably linked to the future of income taxation more generally.