Subjective Probability and Legal Proof: A Ramsian Reply to Allen and Pardo

17 Pages Posted: 11 Jun 2018 Last revised: 3 Aug 2020

See all articles by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

F. E. Guerra-Pujol

Pontifical Catholic University of Puerto Rico; University of Central Florida

Date Written: May 20, 2018

Abstract

Ron Allen and Mike Pardo have criticized probabilistic theories of legal proof and have presented an alternative “relative plausibility” theory of legal proof. Alas, both Allen and Pardo’s critique and their new approach are wrong. The remainder of this paper will describe their theory of relative plausibility, restate Allen and Pardo’s objections to subjective or Bayesian probability, and then answer each one of these objections. This paper will then explain why a Ramsian or subjective view of proof provides a better explanation of juridical proof than Allen and Pardo’s relative plausibility theory. At the end of the day, the key question is this: which of the two competing theories of juridical proof--i.e. subjective probability or relative plausibility--makes more sense, either as a descriptive or normative manner? In summary, because relative plausibility models can be Dutch-booked, and because juror evaluation of proof is an essentially subjective exercise, this paper shall defend a subjective conception of legal proof. Lastly, I shall describe a simple method for operationalizing subjective verdicts in civil cases.

Keywords: Legal Proof, Relative Plausibility, Subjective Probability, Frank Ramsey, Ramsian Verdicts

JEL Classification: C11, K41

Suggested Citation

Guerra-Pujol, F. E., Subjective Probability and Legal Proof: A Ramsian Reply to Allen and Pardo (May 20, 2018). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3181616 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3181616

F. E. Guerra-Pujol (Contact Author)

Pontifical Catholic University of Puerto Rico ( email )

University of Central Florida ( email )

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