Valuing and Pricing Retail Leases with Renewal and Overage Options

Abstract

We consider retail leases with landlord overages options, with tenant renewal options, with both and with neither. We illustrate how the ratio of initial expected sales to the sales threshold can be manipulated to equate the value of the landlord overage options to that of the tenant renewal option at the same initial rent. As a result, not only are the values of the dual option - overage plus renewal lease - and no option leases equal, but the cumulative distributions of potential IRRs on the two leases are nearly identical, suggesting that these leases are equally attractive to risk-adverse investors and thus that the same risky discount rate can be used in valuing the leases. The analysis is carried out in a risk-neutral framework, and sensitivity of the results to interest rate uncertainty, real sales volatility and growth, and the required risk premium on retail real estate is shown. In contrast, the appropriate risky discount rate for the overage lease is calculated to be 75 to 160 basis points greater than that for the renewal lease.

Keywords: retail leases, valuation, risk neutral discounting, risk discount rates