Predicting Budgetary Change: The Effect of Performance Gaps

Journal of Public Administration Research and Theory, Forthcoming

American University School of Public Affairs Research Paper No. 3223969

28 Pages Posted: 31 Jul 2018

See all articles by Carla Flink

Carla Flink

American University - School of Public Affairs

Date Written: July 31, 2018

Abstract

Literature on punctuated equilibrium theory (PET) explains the reasons organizations undergo incremental and punctuated policy changes. This study examines PET within the budgeting process. Alongside disproportionate information processing and institutional friction, recent innovations in PET have incorporated organizational history and theories from public administration to explain budgetary fluctuations. Part of the work merging PET with public administration has demonstrated how policy feedback (measured as the absolute level of performance) influences budgetary changes. Building upon this work, this study adds to the literature by examining another measure of policy feedback–organization performance gaps. This is a theoretically interesting question in how managers respond to performance growth and decline over time. It addresses performance budgeting and evidence based policymaking. Results show that while incremental budgetary changes are the most prevalent no matter the performance change, the probability of negative and positive budgetary changes differ across the spectrum of positive and negative performance gaps.

Keywords: Punctuated Equilibrium Theory, Organizational Performance, Public Budgeting, Public Management, Public Administration

Suggested Citation

Flink, Carla, Predicting Budgetary Change: The Effect of Performance Gaps (July 31, 2018). Journal of Public Administration Research and Theory, Forthcoming, American University School of Public Affairs Research Paper No. 3223969, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3223969 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3223969

Carla Flink (Contact Author)

American University - School of Public Affairs ( email )

Washington, DC 20016
United States

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