Land Use Projections for Southern Non-Black-Earth Regions of Russia: Coping with Uncertainty

17 Pages Posted: 11 Sep 2018

See all articles by Nikolai Svetlov

Nikolai Svetlov

Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS) - Central Economics and Mathematics Institute

Date Written: June 21, 2017

Abstract

To address the question whether the abundancy of agricultural land in regions of Russia can favour growth of their crop production in a long run, a simulation framework is developed that is robust to a high level of uncertainty. Its core is a variety of a partial equilibrium model with a fully specified demand function and an equilibrium point as the only datum about the supply function. Procedures of systems analysis are applied to reduce the uncertainty and to measure its harm. As a result, reliable conclusions are obtained from 1000 random trials. The uncertain parameters of the model are ranked on urgency of their more accurate estimations for the purpose of obtaining a more precise projection. Among 11 uncertain parameters of the model, only four significantly affect incremental land use. Simulations suggest that combining protectionism with monetary inflows in R&D allows moderate growth of the cultivated land area. So, the hypothetical congestion effect of land abundancy is ruled out.

Keywords: unused farmland, abandoned farmland, crop production, uncertainty, partial equilibrium, computer simulations, Russia

JEL Classification: Q15, C44, C63

Suggested Citation

Svetlov, Nikolai, Land Use Projections for Southern Non-Black-Earth Regions of Russia: Coping with Uncertainty (June 21, 2017). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3240669 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3240669

Nikolai Svetlov (Contact Author)

Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS) - Central Economics and Mathematics Institute ( email )

47, Nakhimovsky prospect
Moscow, 117418
Russia

HOME PAGE: http://svetlov.timacad.ru/

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