Economic Shifts in Agricultural Production and Trade Due to Climate Change

9 Pages Posted: 17 Sep 2018

See all articles by Luciana Porfirio

Luciana Porfirio

Australian National University (ANU)

David Newth

Government of the Commonwealth of Australia - CSIRO (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation)

John Finnigan

Australian National University (ANU)

Yiyong Cai

Government of the Commonwealth of Australia - CSIRO (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation); Australian National University (ANU) - Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis (CAMA)

Date Written: September 2018

Abstract

In addition to expanding agricultural land area and intensifying crop yields, increasing the global trade of agricultural products is one mechanism that humanity has adopted to meet the nutritional demands of a growing population. However, climate change will affect the distribution of agricultural production and, therefore, food supply and global markets. Here we quantify the structural changes in the global agricultural trade network under the two contrasting greenhouse gas emissions scenarios by coupling seven Global Gridded Crop Models and five Earth System Models to a global dynamic economic model. Our results suggest that global trade patterns of agricultural commodities may be significantly different from today’s reality with or without carbon mitigation. More specifically, the agricultural trade network becomes more centralised under the high CO emissions scenario, with a few regions dominating the markets. Under the carbon mitigation scenario, the trade network is more distributed and more regions are involved as either importers or exporters. Theoretically, the more distributed the structure of a network, the less vulnerable the system is to climatic or institutional shocks. Mitigating CO emissions has the co-benefit of creating a more stable agricultural trade system that may be better able to reduce food insecurity.

Suggested Citation

Porfirio, Luciana and Newth, David and Finnigan, John and Cai, Yiyong, Economic Shifts in Agricultural Production and Trade Due to Climate Change (September 2018). Palgrave Communications, Vol. 4, Issue 1, pp. 111-111, 2018, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3245133 or http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/s41599-018-0164-y

Luciana Porfirio (Contact Author)

Australian National University (ANU) ( email )

Canberra, Australian Capital Territory 2601
Australia

David Newth

Government of the Commonwealth of Australia - CSIRO (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation) ( email )

41 Boggo Rd
Dutton Park, Queensland
Australia

John Finnigan

Australian National University (ANU)

Canberra, Australian Capital Territory 2601
Australia

Yiyong Cai

Government of the Commonwealth of Australia - CSIRO (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation) ( email )

41 Boggo Rd
Dutton Park, Queensland
Australia

Australian National University (ANU) - Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis (CAMA) ( email )

ANU College of Business and Economics
Canberra, Australian Capital Territory 0200
Australia

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