Gender-Based Violence in New Delhi, India: Forecast Based on Secondary Data Analysis

Abstract

Background: Crime against women is a global phenomenon. Aims: To estimate and forecast cognizable crime against women in New Delhi, India, from the year 2016 to 2020.

Methods: Reported cognizable crime against women in New Delhi for the period 2009 to 2015 was extracted for statistical analysis, synthesis and modeling. The cognizable crime reported against women are rape, attempt to commit rape, kidnapping and abduction of women, dowry deaths, assault on women with intent to outrage her modesty, insult to modesty of women, cruelty by husband or his relative, importation of girls from foreign countries, abetment of suicide of women, indecent representation of women.

Results: Available data indicated that actual number of registered cases of crime against women ranged from 4251 (2009), to 17 104 (2015). The number of projected cases ranged between 18 991 (95% CI: 13 092–24 889) in 2016 to 28 663 (95% CI: 22 314–35 013) in 2020. Rising trend of crime against women was noticed and rate of crime against women ranged between 204.6 (2016) to 308.8 (2020) per 100 000 women population in New Delhi. Furthermore, it was noticed that after witnessing a substantive increase (116.2%) in reported crime against women in New Delhi in 2013, the subsequent actual and projected rise appears to be incremental in nature with annual percentage point change ranging between 9% to 18%.

Conclusion: Within limitations, it is concluded that the safety of women would be a concern in the near future.

Keywords: crime, developing country, women empowerment, gender training, police, time-series