Do Value-Added Taxes Affect International Trade Flows? Evidence from 30 Years of Tax Reforms
30 Pages Posted: 2 Jan 2019 Last revised: 19 Aug 2020
Date Written: December 14, 2018
Abstract
This paper uses all Value Added Tax (VAT) changes across all EU Member States from 1988 to 2016 to estimate the effect of VATs on trade flows. We find small elasticities of trade flows with respect to VATs, in spite of some of the VAT changes being substantial. We estimate substantially smaller responses of trade flows to VATs compared to the responses of trade flows to tariffs estimated in the trade literature. This finding holds across different time periods, countries and types of reforms. Our results imply that VATs are unlikely to distort trade flows.
Keywords: value-added taxes, border tax adjustment, international trade
JEL Classification: H87, H20, F32, F10
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation