Predicting Solar Irradiance With SVM Regression

Abstract

This paper describes using manifold learning for dimensionality reduction along with support vector machines for regression to predict the solar irradiance given historical weather data. A critical struggle in the renewable energy industry is combining the unpredictable renewable energy sources with pre-existing energy sources in an efficient way to minimize cost and pollution. By using machine learning, we are able to achieve high accuracy in prediction which can be very useful in controlling the output of fossil fuel output, yet maintaining a constant flow of energy to consumers. The synchronization of solar and non-renewable energy is explored from both a deterministic and stochastic approach, with the stochastic formulation showing promise.

Keywords: Support Vector Machines, Manifold Learning, Solar Energy, Grid Integration