Humanitarian Organization Pre-Disaster Deployment for Predictable Disasters
Posted: 3 Jan 2019
Date Written: December 20, 2017
Abstract
Initial deployment decisions are critical to Humanitarian Organizations (HOs) as they pre-position inventory and prepare for predictable disasters, such as hurricanes, floods, and wildfires. Deploying too little inventory results in unmet demand, bad publicity, and unhappy donors. On the other hand, deploying too much inventory can also result in bad publicity and unhappy donors due to high costs and wasted resources. We use a stochastic optimization model in several modes to investigate the initial deployment decision, the surrounding costs, and optics of varying disaster scenarios. The stochastic model forces the initial deployment decision to be made before the disaster occurs and true demand is realized. While many humanitarian practitioners are leery of optimization models dictating decisions, we find that full optimization (including returns and disposals) may actually increase the initial deployment amount. We also find that fixed return costs and scenario analysis can have a large impact on the cost savings and decision-making of HOs. We discuss how understanding both marginal and fixed return costs is important for the HOs' choice of optimization modes and level of initial deployment, especially when wide discrepancies in disaster outcomes are possible.
Keywords: Humanitarian Operations, Inventory Deployment, Inventory Pre-Positioning
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