In Search of Fluctuations: Another Look at China's Incredibly Stable GDP Growth

29 Pages Posted: 7 Jan 2019 Last revised: 18 Nov 2021

Date Written: December 27, 2018

Abstract

China’s official real GDP growth has held surprisingly stable in recent years. As national GDP figures influence both policy analysis and political decisions, the GDP growth rate of the massive Chinese economy has also great international implications. Taking the nominal GDP growth and price index data as given and experimenting with alternative deflators, this paper attempts to track missing fluctuations in real GDP growth in recent years. Based on the constructed growth series, real GDP growth decreased during 2015–2016 and picked up in 2017. Growth has been again decelerating this year. Furthermore, the constructed growth rate seems to be well below the recent official figures. Data available at https://www.bofit.fi/en/monitoring/statistics/china-statistics/.

Keywords: China, GDP, deflators, principal component

JEL Classification: C38, E01, E3, P2

Suggested Citation

Kerola, Eeva, In Search of Fluctuations: Another Look at China's Incredibly Stable GDP Growth (December 27, 2018). BOFIT Discussion Paper No. 23/2018, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3311107

Eeva Kerola (Contact Author)

Bank of Finland ( email )

P.O. Box 160
Helsinki 00101
Finland

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