10K Complexity and the Market Efficiency and Information Asymmetry Implications of Analysts’ Annual Earnings Forecasts
50 Pages Posted: 11 Mar 2019 Last revised: 25 Oct 2021
Date Written: January 21, 2020
Abstract
This paper examines whether 10K complexity has unintended consequences in terms of impairing price discovery in capital markets. More specifically, we examine the impact -- on information asymmetry and market efficiency -- of sell-side financial analysts’ first revised forecasts following publication of high- versus low-complexity 10Ks. We find that: (1) the generally mitigating effect of analysts’ forecasts on information asymmetry documented in prior literature dissipates with 10K complexity; (2) analyst underreaction to 10K-related information increases with complexity; and (3) the impact of analyst underreaction on stock price efficiency increases with 10K complexity. Our results suggest that analyst forecasting behavior in response to complex 10K-related information constrains price discovery by creating market frictions due to information asymmetry and market inefficiency.
Keywords: 10K complexity, information asymmetry, analyst forecasts, market efficiency
JEL Classification: d52, d82, g12, g14, m40, m41,
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