Statistical Models of Key Components of Wildfire Risk

Posted: 3 May 2019

See all articles by Dexen D.Z. Xi

Dexen D.Z. Xi

University of Western Ontario

Stephen W. Taylor

Natural Resources Canada

Douglas G. Woolford

University of Western Ontario

C.B. Dean

University of Waterloo

Date Written: March 2019

Abstract

Fire danger systems have evolved from qualitative indices, to process-driven deterministic models of fire behavior and growth, to data-driven stochastic models of fire occurrence and simulation systems. However, there has often been little overlap or connectivity in these frameworks, and validation has not been common in deterministic models. Yet, marked increases in annual fire costs, losses, and fatality costs over the past decade draw attention to the need for better understanding of fire risk to support fire management decision making through the use of science-backed, data-driven tools. Contemporary risk modeling systems provide a useful integrative framework. This article discusses a variety of important contributions for modeling fire risk components over recent decades, certain key fire characteristics that have been overlooked, and areas of recent research that may enhance risk models.

Suggested Citation

Xi, Dexen D.Z. and Taylor, Stephen W. and Woolford, Douglas G. and Dean, C.B., Statistical Models of Key Components of Wildfire Risk (March 2019). Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, Vol. 6, Issue 1, pp. 197-222, 2019, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3382113 or http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev-statistics-031017-100450

Dexen D.Z. Xi (Contact Author)

University of Western Ontario ( email )

1151 Richmond Street
Suite 2
London, Ontario N6A 5B8
Canada

Stephen W. Taylor

Natural Resources Canada ( email )

Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0E9
Canada

Douglas G. Woolford

University of Western Ontario ( email )

1151 Richmond Street
Suite 2
London, Ontario N6A 5B8
Canada

C.B. Dean

University of Waterloo ( email )

Waterloo, Ontario N2L 3G1
Canada

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