Drivers of the Bangladesh Fish Economy: Projections of Future Fish Supply and Demand
IFPRI Discussion Paper 1835, 2019
50 Pages Posted: 31 May 2019 Last revised: 5 Jun 2019
Date Written: May 8, 2019
Abstract
Fish play a major role in the Bangladesh food system. Fish production, processing and marketing are major source of incomes for many households, and fish consumption accounts for a significant share of protein consumption in the Bangladeshi diet. Moreover, fish production and consumption are growing rapidly, with the aquaculture subsector as a major driver of change of both supply and demand In this paper, we present estimates of demand elasticities for four categories of fish (aquaculture, inland capture, mixed production, and marine) using a modified Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System. These demand estimates are then used in projections of future supply and demand for these different types of fish under different productivity growth assumptions. Our results show that, at current rates of productivity increase, growth in fish production will outpace increases in demand from population and income growth, resulting a decline in real prices over time. A more rapid increase in productivity would lead to even larger supply increases and corresponding price declines. These effects are most keenly felt by the poorest households who see significant increases in fish consumption. Fish production from aquaculture is likely to have higher rates of productivity growth than the more extensive inland capture and marine systems, leading to a long term shift increase in the share of aquaculture production and consumption.
Keywords: agricultural production, fish farms, aquaculture, fishery production, supply balance, food prices
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