Visible and Invisible Forces: What Drives the Intensity of Trading in the European Carbon Market?
Review of Economic Analysis 11 (2019) 117-144
28 Pages Posted: 11 Jul 2019 Last revised: 12 Jul 2019
Date Written: June 19, 2019
Abstract
This study models the trading intensity in European Allowances (EUA) futures contracts in the European Climate Exchange (ECX) using various specifications and investigates the forecasting ability of observable versus unobservable factors. This set up tests empirically the impact of the evolving market structure through regulatory updates, captured by trading volume fluctuations, to the intensity of trading in the European Carbon market. The findings suggest that observable market characteristics capture better the dynamics of trading intensity than their latent counterparts, which implies that regulatory changes that enhance transparency would also improve market efficiency.
Keywords: Carbon market, Duration modeling Ultra-High Frequency data
JEL Classification: C30, C41, G14
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation