Anticipatory Anxiety and Wishful Thinking

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper 2019-042/I

32 Pages Posted: 26 Jun 2019

See all articles by Jan Engelmann

Jan Engelmann

Amsterdam School of Economics; Amsterdam Brain and Cognition; Tinbergen Institute

Maël Lebreton

University of Geneva

Peter Schwardmann

Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich (LMU) - Faculty of Economics; Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich (LMU)

Joel J. van der Weele

University of Amsterdam - Center for Experimental Economics and political Decision making (CREED); Tinbergen Institute; Center for Financial Studies (CFS)

Li-Ang Chang

University of Amsterdam - Center for Research in Experimental Economics and Political Decision-Making (CREED)

Date Written: June 17, 2019

Abstract

It is widely hypothesized that anxiety and worry about an uncertain future lead to the adoption of comforting beliefs or "wishful thinking". However, there is little direct causal evidence for this effect. In our experiment, participants perform a visual pattern recognition task where some patterns may result in the delivery of an electric shock, a proven way of inducing anxiety. Participants engage in significant wishful thinking, as they are less likely to correctly identify patterns that they know may lead to a shock. Greater ambiguity of the pattern facilitates wishful thinking. Raising incentives for accuracy does not significantly decrease it.

Keywords: confidence, beliefs, anticipatory utility, anxiety, motivated cognition

JEL Classification: D83, C91

Suggested Citation

Engelmann, Jan and Lebreton, Maël and Schwardmann, Peter and Schwardmann, Peter and van der Weele, Joel J. and Chang, Li-Ang, Anticipatory Anxiety and Wishful Thinking (June 17, 2019). Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper 2019-042/I, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3408017 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3408017

Jan Engelmann (Contact Author)

Amsterdam School of Economics ( email )

Spui 21
Amsterdam, 1018 WB
Netherlands

Amsterdam Brain and Cognition ( email )

Amsterdamn, 1018 WS
Netherlands

Tinbergen Institute ( email )

Burg. Oudlaan 50
Rotterdam, 3062 PA
Netherlands

Maël Lebreton

University of Geneva ( email )

102 Bd Carl-Vogt
Genève, CH - 1205
Switzerland

Peter Schwardmann

Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich (LMU) - Faculty of Economics ( email )

Ludwigstrasse 28
Munich, D-80539
Germany

HOME PAGE: http://https://sites.google.com/site/peterschwardmann/

Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich (LMU) ( email )

Geschwister-Scholl-Platz 1
Munich, DE Bavaria 80539
Germany

Joel J. Van der Weele

University of Amsterdam - Center for Experimental Economics and political Decision making (CREED) ( email )

Roetersstraat 11
Amsterdam, 1018 WB
Netherlands

HOME PAGE: http://https://sites.google.com/site/joelvdweele/

Tinbergen Institute ( email )

Burg. Oudlaan 50
Rotterdam, 3062 PA
Netherlands

Center for Financial Studies (CFS) ( email )

Grüneburgplatz 1
Frankfurt am Main, 60323
Germany

Li-Ang Chang

University of Amsterdam - Center for Research in Experimental Economics and Political Decision-Making (CREED) ( email )

Faculty of Economics and Econometrics
Roetersstraat 11
Amsterdam, 1018 WB
Netherlands

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