Job Vacancies, the Beveridge Curve, and Supply Shocks: The Frequency and Content of Help-Wanted Ads in Pre- and Post-Mariel Miami

76 Pages Posted: 9 Sep 2019

See all articles by Jason Anastasopoulos

Jason Anastasopoulos

Princeton University; University of Georgia - School of Public and International Affairs

George J. Borjas

Harvard University - Harvard Kennedy School (HKS); National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Gavin Cook

University of Virginia - Darden School of Business

Michael Lachanski

Princeton University

Abstract

Beginning in 1951, the Conference Board constructed a monthly job vacancy index by counting the number of help-wanted ads published in local newspapers in 51 metropolitan areas. We use the Help-Wanted Index (HWI) to document how immigration changes the number of job vacancies in the affected labor markets. Our analysis revisits the Mariel episode. The data reveal a marked drop in Miami's HWI relative to many alternative control groups in the first 4 or 5 years after Mariel, followed by recovery afterwards. The Miami evidence is consistent with the observed relation between immigration and the HWI across all metropolitan areas in the 1970-2000 period: these spatial correlations suggest that more immigration reduces the number of job vacancies. We also explore some of the macro implications of the Mariel supply shock and show that Miami's Beveridge curve shifted inwards by the mid-1980s, suggesting a more efficient labor market, in contrast to the outward nationwide shift coincident with the onset of the 1980-1982 recession. Finally, we examine the text of the help-wanted ads published in a number of newspapers and document a statistically and economically significant post-Mariel decline in the relative number of low-skill vacancies advertised in the Miami Herald.

Keywords: job vacancies, immigration, Beveridge Curve

JEL Classification: J23, J6

Suggested Citation

Anastasopoulos, Jason and Borjas, George J. and Cook, Gavin and Lachanski, Michael, Job Vacancies, the Beveridge Curve, and Supply Shocks: The Frequency and Content of Help-Wanted Ads in Pre- and Post-Mariel Miami. IZA Discussion Paper No. 12581, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3449575 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3449575

Jason Anastasopoulos (Contact Author)

Princeton University

22 Chambers Street
Princeton, NJ 08544-0708
United States

University of Georgia - School of Public and International Affairs ( email )

Athens, GA 30602-6254
United States

George J. Borjas

Harvard University - Harvard Kennedy School (HKS) ( email )

79 John F. Kennedy Street
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States
617-495-1393 (Phone)
617-495-9532 (Fax)

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Gavin Cook

University of Virginia - Darden School of Business

P.O. Box 6550
Charlottesville, VA 22906-6550
United States

Michael Lachanski

Princeton University

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