Market Timing and Time Frequency

Abstract

This paper shows the usefulness of selecting the appropriate time frequency to examine mutual fund market timing. Using a sample of daily returns for the UK, we find evidence of the benefit to increase the temporal frequency of the observations to estimate market timing as results present a greater significance when we use daily data in the analysis. We show that using daily instead of monthly observations increases the number of significant estimates of market timing ability. This suggests that the return frequency is important when examining mutual funds market timing performance. Another conclusion we can draw from this study is the small proportion of mutual funds that manage to beat the market by performing correct timing strategies, thus the UK mutual fund market confirms the conclusion from previous studies in another markets.

Keywords: Mutual Funds; Market Timing; Portfolio Management; Short-term performance

JEL Classification: G11, G12