Elections and Policy Responsiveness: Evidence from Environmental Voting in the U.S. Congress

Review of Policy Research, Forthcoming

66 Pages Posted: 8 Oct 2019

Date Written: September 27, 2019

Abstract

Do elections affect legislators' voting patterns? We investigate this question in the context of environmental policy in the US Congress. We theorize that since the general public is generally in favor of legislation protecting the environment, legislators have an incentive to favor the public over industry and vote for pro-environment legislation at election time. The argument is supported by analyses of data on environmental roll-call votes for the US Congress from 1970-2013 where we estimate the likelihood of casting a pro-environment as a function of the time to an election. While Democrats are generally more likely to cast a pro-environment vote before an election, this effect is much stronger for Republicans when the legislator won the previous election by a thinner margin. The election effect is maximized for candidates receiving substantial campaign contributions from the (anti-environment) oil and gas industry. Analysis of Twitter data confirms that Congress. members make pro-environmental statements and highlight their roll-call voting behavior during the election season. These results show that legislators do strategically adjust their voting behavior to favor the public immediate prior to an election.

Keywords: environmental policy, roll call voting, electoral politics, democratic accountability, Congress

Suggested Citation

McAlexander, Richard and Urpelainen, Johannes, Elections and Policy Responsiveness: Evidence from Environmental Voting in the U.S. Congress (September 27, 2019). Review of Policy Research, Forthcoming, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3460491

Richard McAlexander

Columbia University ( email )

3022 Broadway
New York, NY 10027
United States

Johannes Urpelainen (Contact Author)

Johns Hopkins SAIS ( email )

1740 Massachusetts Avenue, NW
Washington, DC 20036-1984
United States

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