Recent Increases in Air Pollution: Evidence and Implications for Mortality

29 Pages Posted: 21 Oct 2019 Last revised: 30 Jan 2023

See all articles by Karen Clay

Karen Clay

Carnegie Mellon University - H. John Heinz III School of Public Policy and Management; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Nicholas Z. Muller

Carnegie Mellon University - David A. Tepper School of Business

Date Written: October 2019

Abstract

After declining by 24.2% from 2009 to 2016, annual average fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in the United States in counties with monitors increased by 5.5% between 2016 and 2018. Increases occurred in multiple census regions and in counties that were in and out of attainment with National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS). We explore channels through which the increase may have occurred including increases in economic activity, increases in wildfires, and decreases in Clean Air Act enforcement actions. The health implications of this increase in PM2.5 between 2016 and 2018 are significant. The increase was associated with 9,700 additional premature deaths in 2018. At conventional valuations, these deaths represent damages of $89 billion.

Suggested Citation

Clay, Karen B. and Muller, Nicholas Z., Recent Increases in Air Pollution: Evidence and Implications for Mortality (October 2019). NBER Working Paper No. w26381, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3472816

Karen B. Clay (Contact Author)

Carnegie Mellon University - H. John Heinz III School of Public Policy and Management ( email )

Pittsburgh, PA 15213-3890
United States

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) ( email )

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Nicholas Z. Muller

Carnegie Mellon University - David A. Tepper School of Business ( email )

5000 Forbes Avenue
Pittsburgh, PA 15213-3890
United States

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