On the Prevalence of Forest Fires in Spain

Abstract

We study the prevalence of forest fires in Spain in the long run by computing the probability that a forest tree, as opposed to shrub or bush, will be lost to fire over one year. We first show that climate change increases the likelihood of this event. Next, we document how risk grew dramatically from 1961 up to the democratic era (c. 1980) and has since receded to less than 2 trees lost per thousand standing (every year). We offer socio-economic clues for this trend reversal. Our finding is commensurate with the evolution of the same risk in neighboring Mediterranean countries.

Keywords: Forest Fire, Disaster, Climate Change, Economic Growth

JEL Classification: Q54, D81, G22, O20