Dynamic Trends of Fine Particulate Matter Exposure Among 190 Countries

Abstract

Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is estimated to cause more than 3.7 million premature deaths worldwide.

However, the level and annual rate of change for PM2.5 varies greatly among countries in the world. Using PME which is population weighted average annual concentration of PM2.5 to which the typical citizen of each country is exposed, the dynamic trend of PME is measured by the Progress Ratio (PR) from an Experience Curve (EC) involving 190 countries during the period 2000-2014. The average PR for the total group is 96.51% indicating only a moderate decreasing trend of 4.49% per each doubling of the cumulative energy consumption. While a majority of 118 countries experienced a decreasing a trend of PME with an averaged PR of 88.05%, the remaining 72 countries displayed an increasing averaged PR of 110.39%. When two different types of EC, classical and kinked were applied, a majority of 135 countries recorded an averaged PR of 99.68%, while the remaining 55 countries experienced an average PR of 88.94%.

Further examination on the type of slope and trend suggests the chances of a major improvement of future PME in the following order: (1) The 60 countries with an increasing classical slope; (2) The 12 countries with an increasing kinked slope; (3) The 75 countries with a decreasing classical slope.; (4) The 43 countries with a decreasing kinked slope. Further implication from these findings will be discussed.

Keywords: PME; PM2.5 exposure; cumulative energy consumption, progress ratio; classical experience curve