Mathematical Models of Foreign Policy Decision-Making

Synthese 100(3):441-460, 1994

Posted: 10 Mar 2020

See all articles by Alex Mintz

Alex Mintz

Interdisciplinary Center (IDC) Herzliya

Nehemia Geva

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Karl DeRouen

The University of Alabama

Date Written: September 1, 1994

Abstract

There are presently two leading foreign policy decision-making paradigms in vogue. The first is based on the classical or rational model originally posited by von Neumann and Morgenstern to explain microeconomics decisions. The second is based on the cybernetic perspective whose groundwork was laid by Herbert Simon in his early research on bounded rationality. In this paper we introduce a third perspective — the poliheuristic theory of decision-making — as an alternative to the rational actor and cybernetic paradigms in international relations. This theory is drawn in large part from research on heuristics done in experimental cognitive psychology. According to the poliheuristic theory, policy makers use poly (many) heuristics while focusing on a very narrow range of options and dimensions when making decisions. Among them, the political dimension is non compensatory. The paper also delineates the mathematical formulations of the three decision-making models.

Keywords: Decision making, Foreign policy, Foreign policy decision making, Rational model, Cybernetic prospective model, Bounded rationality, Poliheuristic theory, Heuristics, Experimental cognitive psychology, Cognitive psychology, Psychology

Suggested Citation

Mintz, Alex and Geva, Nehemia and DeRouen, Karl, Mathematical Models of Foreign Policy Decision-Making (September 1, 1994). Synthese 100(3):441-460, 1994, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3512067

Alex Mintz (Contact Author)

Interdisciplinary Center (IDC) Herzliya ( email )

P.O. Box 167
Herzliya, 4610101
Israel

Nehemia Geva

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Karl DeRouen

The University of Alabama ( email )

101 Paul W. Bryant Dr.
Box 870382
Tuscaloosa, AL 35487
United States

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