Consumption, Asset Markets, and Macroeconomic Fluctuations

52 Pages Posted: 24 Jan 2007 Last revised: 17 Oct 2022

See all articles by Robert J. Shiller

Robert J. Shiller

Yale University - Cowles Foundation; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); Yale University - International Center for Finance

Date Written: 1982

Abstract

A broad exploratory data analysis is conducted to assess the promise of a kind of model in which long-term asset prices change through time primarily due to consumption related changes in the rate of discount. Aggregate consumption data are used to infer ex-post marginal rates of substitution. Prices of stocks, bonds, short debt, land and housing are examined for the period 1890 to 1980, Methods are explored of evaluating this kind of model in the absence of accurate data on consumption.

Suggested Citation

Shiller, Robert J., Consumption, Asset Markets, and Macroeconomic Fluctuations (1982). NBER Working Paper No. w0838, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=351376

Robert J. Shiller (Contact Author)

Yale University - Cowles Foundation ( email )

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HOME PAGE: http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/

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Yale University - International Center for Finance ( email )

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203-432-6167 (Fax)

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