lancet-header

Preprints with The Lancet is part of SSRN´s First Look, a place where journals identify content of interest prior to publication. Authors have opted in at submission to The Lancet family of journals to post their preprints on Preprints with The Lancet. The usual SSRN checks and a Lancet-specific check for appropriateness and transparency have been applied. Preprints available here are not Lancet publications or necessarily under review with a Lancet journal. These preprints are early stage research papers that have not been peer-reviewed. The findings should not be used for clinical or public health decision making and should not be presented to a lay audience without highlighting that they are preliminary and have not been peer-reviewed. For more information on this collaboration, see the comments published in The Lancet about the trial period, and our decision to make this a permanent offering, or visit The Lancet´s FAQ page, and for any feedback please contact preprints@lancet.com.

The Epidemic Dynamics of 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Infections in China by 28 January

11 Pages Posted: 4 Feb 2020

See all articles by Yuan Gao

Yuan Gao

Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis Treatment of Infectious Diseases - State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control

Qiyong Liu

Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis Treatment of Infectious Diseases - State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control

More...

Abstract

Objective: To explore the epidemic dynamics of the pneumonia caused by 2019-nCoV in China.

Methods: A descriptive analysis was utilized to explore the epidemiological characteristics. A spatial mapping description was conducted to explore the geographic characteristics.

Findings: China has reported 5981 confirmed cases of 2019-nCoV infections, including 132 fatal cases until 28 January. The fatality rate was 2.21%. And there were still 9239 probable cases. From 23 January, the growth rate has been increased with a peak on 27 January. Of the neighboring provinces of Hubei, Chongqing reported the most cases until 24 January. Henan reported the most cases from 25 January to 27 January. Hunan reported the most cases on 28 January. Of the other provinces, Guangdong and Zhejiang had more confirmed cases with a higher growth rate.

Interpretation: The epidemic is in the stage of mass morbidity and rigorous screening for probable cases. Although the number of the cases have still increased in China, a series of prevention and control measures have been taken throughout China.

Funding Statement: This study was supported by the Opening Research Grant of the State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention.

Declaration of Interests: The authors state that there is no competing interest.

Ethics Approval Statement: Not required.

Keywords: novel coronavirus; 2019-nCoV; China; epidemic

Suggested Citation

Gao, Yuan and Liu, Qiyong, The Epidemic Dynamics of 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Infections in China by 28 January (1/29/2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3529448 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3529448

Yuan Gao

Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis Treatment of Infectious Diseases - State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control

155 Changbai Road
Changping District
Beijing, 102206
China

Qiyong Liu (Contact Author)

Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis Treatment of Infectious Diseases - State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control ( email )

155 Changbai Road
Changping District
Beijing, 102206
China

Click here to go to TheLancet.com

Paper statistics

Downloads
368
Abstract Views
3,191
PlumX Metrics