Brexit, A Drama: The Endgame -- Part I

40 Pages Posted: 16 Mar 2020

See all articles by Paul P. Craig

Paul P. Craig

University of Oxford - Faculty of Law

Date Written: February 20, 2020

Abstract

Political change is rarely uniform across time. Consider recent events. We all became inured to the battle-ground in the United Kingdom House of Commons, wherein deftness of strategy in relation to Commons Procedure, combined with voting numbers, was the name of the game. Move was followed by counter move as a minority government under successive Prime Ministers sought unsuccessfully to secure approval of the first Withdrawal Agreement, and then the revised version thereof. The possibility of a second referendum was still on the cards, and with it the hopes of Remain voters. Election night in December 2019 changed all that in a heartbeat. The Prime Minister secured a resounding victory, and breached the Labour Party’s red wall. The Labour Party was left licking its wounds, searching for a new leader, as the Prime Minister basked in the glory of his victory. Brexit happened on 31 January 2020. There will be no second referendum and the memory of the many divisions that characterized the House of Commons agenda for the past three years is already fading.

This article considers the Brexit process that led to the endgame. It is however only the first part of the endgame, hence the title of the article, since the effect of Brexit will only be known when there is an agreement on future relations between the UK and the EU. The UK government wishes for this to be secured by the end of 2020, but that date is unlikely to be met. The Brexit story is an unfolding drama, the contours of which are elaborated as acts in a play, enlivened by pertinent quotes from Shakespeare, who has insightful words aplenty for every occasion.

The article follows the same format as two earlier publications. The first article covered Acts 1-6 of the drama, the second article covered Acts 7-9. The drama picks up from the end of the second article, which dealt with events in the first 15 months after the referendum. The structure of the present article is as follows. Act 10 elaborates the defining features of the initial Withdrawal Agreement, including the Northern Ireland backstop and the Political Declaration. This is essential, since it is impossible to understand the deliberations that led to these documents without some understanding of their content. Act 11 is entitled the Tragedy of the Commons, and the reader can imbue this title with any one or more of the three meanings that the phrase might bear. This Act tells the story of the negotiations from the perspective of the UK executive, the EU executive and the UK legislature. Act 12 considers the revisions made to the Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration, and outlines the challenges that lie ahead.

Keywords: Brexit, withdrawal, political declaration, executive power

Suggested Citation

Craig, Paul P., Brexit, A Drama: The Endgame -- Part I (February 20, 2020). (2020) European Law Review , Oxford Legal Studies Research Paper No. 10/2020, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3541896

Paul P. Craig (Contact Author)

University of Oxford - Faculty of Law ( email )

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