Mathematical Predictions for COVID-19 As a Global Pandemic

Abstract

This study shows that the disease free equilibrium (E_0 ) for COVID-19 coronavirus does not satisfy the criteria for a locally or globally asymptotic stability. This implies that as a pandemic as declared by WHO (2020) the COVID-19 coronavirus does not have a curative vaccine yet and precautionary measures are advised through quarantine and observatory procedures. Also, the Basic Reproductive number (R_0<1) by Equation (33) shows that there is a chance of decline of secondary infections when the ratio between the incidence rate in the population and the total number of infected population quarantined with observatory procedure.

The effort to evaluate the disease equilibrium shows that unless there is a dedicated effort from government, decision makers and stakeholders, the world would hardly be reed of the COVID-19 coronavirus and further spread is eminent and the rate of infection will continue to increase despite the increased rate of recovery because of the absence of vaccine at the moment.

Keywords: coronavirus pandemic globally, COVID-19 coronavirus, mathematical modeling of infection disease, SEIRUS-model, parameter identification, statistical methods