Covid-19 Coronavirus and Macroeconomic Policy

Abstract

We provide a simple model to understand some macroeconomic implications of the coronavirus epidemic. We focus on a scenario in which the Covid-19 outbreak causes a persistent supply disruption, potentially extending beyond the end of the epidemic. We show that the spread of the virus might generate a demand-driven slump, give rise to a supply-demand doom loop, and open the door to stagnation traps induced by pessimistic animal spirits. Aggressive policies to support investment can reverse the supply-demand doom loop and jumpstart the economy out of stagnation traps.

Keywords: coronavirus pandemic, COVID-19, Fiscal policy, hysteresis, monetary policy, Productivity Growth, stagnation traps, supply-demand doom loop

JEL Classification: E24, E32, E52, E62, F43, O42