Firm-Level Exposure to Epidemic Diseases: COVID-19, SARS, and H1N1

Abstract

We construct text-based measures of the primary concerns listed firms associated with the spread of COVID-19 and other epidemic diseases. We identify which firms perceive to lose or gain from a given epidemic and textually decompose the epidemic’s effect on the firm’s demand and supply. We find that the effects of COVID-19 manifest as a simultaneous shock to demand and supply, with both shocks affecting firms’ market valuations in equal measure on average. By contrast, demand-related impacts appear more important in accounting for the observed collapse in firm-level investment during the COVID-19 crisis.

Keywords: Macroeconomic shocks, epidemic diseases, firms, uncertainty, sentiment, computational linguistics

JEL Classification: E0, E6, F0, G12, I0