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Impacts of Climate Change on Methylmercury Formation and Bioaccumulation in the 21st Century Ocean

19 Pages Posted: 12 May 2020 Publication Status: Published

See all articles by Yanxu Zhang

Yanxu Zhang

Nanjing University - Joint International Research Laboratory of Atmospheric and Earth System Sciences

Stephanie Dutkiewicz

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences

Elsie Sunderland

Harvard University - John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences

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Abstract

Climate change is altering marine biogeochemistry, thereby modifying factors affecting the formation and trophic transfer of the bioaccumulative neurotoxicant methylmercury (MeHg) in the global ocean. However, both the directionality and magnitude of future changes are unclear. Here we use a coupled 3-D atmosphere-ocean-ecology model to forecast how MeHg concentrations in the surface ocean will respond to changes in primary production and associated carbon export in 2100. Model results suggest a 68-93% increase in MeHg in the polar oceans and a 23% decrease in the high-latitude North Atlantic Ocean. Phytoplankton MeHg reservoirs will increase at high-latitudes and decrease in the mid- and low-latitude oceans due to a poleward shift in habitat. Ocean acidification is projected to increase phytoplankton MeHg reservoirs globally by promoting the growth of Synechococcus, a small phytoplankton species that efficiently accumulates MeHg. Changes in MeHg reservoirs in herbivorous zooplankton mimic their prey but with larger magnitudes due to non-linearity embedded in the food web structure. The effect of climate-driven shifts in marine biogeochemistry thus needs to be considered in evaluating future trajectories in biological MeHg concentrations.

Keywords: Mercury, MITgcm, ocean biogeochemistry, Climate change, ocean acidification, methylmercury, food web

Suggested Citation

Zhang, Yanxu and Dutkiewicz, Stephanie and Sunderland, Elsie, Impacts of Climate Change on Methylmercury Formation and Bioaccumulation in the 21st Century Ocean. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3583658 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3583658
This version of the paper has not been formally peer reviewed.

Yanxu Zhang (Contact Author)

Nanjing University - Joint International Research Laboratory of Atmospheric and Earth System Sciences ( email )

China

Stephanie Dutkiewicz

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences

Cambridge, MA
United States

Elsie Sunderland

Harvard University - John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences

United States

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