Tracking COVID-19 Spread in Italy with Mobility Data
Posted: 28 Apr 2020 Last revised: 11 Jul 2022
Date Written: May 19, 2020
Abstract
This paper provides insights for policymakers to evaluate the impact of staying at home and lockdown policies by investigating possible links between individual mobility and the spread of the COVID-19 virus in Italy. By relying on the daily data, the empirical evidence suggests that an increase in the number of visits to public spaces such as workspaces, parks, and retail areas and the use of public transportation is associated with an increase in the positive COVID-19 cases in a subsequent week. On the contrary, the increased intensity of staying in residential spaces is related to a decrease in the confirmed cases of COVID-19 significantly. Results are robust after controlling for the lockdown period. Empirical evidence underlines the importance of the lockdown decision. Further, there is substantial regional variation among the twenty regions of Italy. Individual presence in public vs. residential spaces significantly affects the number of COVID-19 cases in the Lombardy region.
Note:
Funding Information: MISSING
Conflict of Interests: MISSING
Keywords: COVID-19, Coronavirus, Italy, Regional Heterogeneity, Mobility
JEL Classification: I10; I18; I31
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation