Tracking COVID-19 Spread in Italy with Mobility Data

Posted: 28 Apr 2020 Last revised: 11 Jul 2022

Date Written: May 19, 2020

Abstract

This paper provides insights for policymakers to evaluate the impact of staying at home and lockdown policies by investigating possible links between individual mobility and the spread of the COVID-19 virus in Italy. By relying on the daily data, the empirical evidence suggests that an increase in the number of visits to public spaces such as workspaces, parks, and retail areas and the use of public transportation is associated with an increase in the positive COVID-19 cases in a subsequent week. On the contrary, the increased intensity of staying in residential spaces is related to a decrease in the confirmed cases of COVID-19 significantly. Results are robust after controlling for the lockdown period. Empirical evidence underlines the importance of the lockdown decision. Further, there is substantial regional variation among the twenty regions of Italy. Individual presence in public vs. residential spaces significantly affects the number of COVID-19 cases in the Lombardy region.

Note:
Funding Information: MISSING

Conflict of Interests: MISSING

Keywords: COVID-19, Coronavirus, Italy, Regional Heterogeneity, Mobility

JEL Classification: I10; I18; I31

Suggested Citation

Bilgin, Nuriye Melisa, Tracking COVID-19 Spread in Italy with Mobility Data (May 19, 2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3585921 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3585921

Nuriye Melisa Bilgin (Contact Author)

Bocconi University ( email )

Via Sarfatti, 25
Milan, MI 20136
Italy

Do you have negative results from your research you’d like to share?

Paper statistics

Abstract Views
1,937
PlumX Metrics