Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions and Mortality in U.S. Cities During the Great Influenza Pandemic, 1918-1919
20 Pages Posted: 5 May 2020
Date Written: 2020
Abstract
Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were measured by Markel, et al. (2007) for U.S. cities during the second wave of the Great Influenza Pandemic, September 1918-February 1919. Â The NPIs were in three categories: school closings, prohibitions on public gatherings, and quarantine/isolation. Â An increase in NPIs sharply reduced the ratio of peak to average deaths, with a larger effect when NPIs were treated as endogenous. Â However, the estimated effect on overall deaths was small and statistically insignificant. Â The likely reason that the NPIs were not more successful in curtailing mortality is that the interventions had a mean duration of only around one month.
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