Демографическое прогнозирование и анализ демографической неоднородности России (Population Forecasting and Analysis of Demographic Heterogeneity of Russia)

71 Pages Posted: 3 Jun 2020

See all articles by Sergey Shulgin

Sergey Shulgin

Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Administration under the President of the Russian Federation (RANEPA) - Institute of Applied Economic Research

Sergei Scherbov

Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Administration under the President of the Russian Federation (RANEPA) - Institute of Applied Economic Research

Date Written: March 4, 2020

Abstract

Russian Abstract: В данной работе разрабатывается и апробируется методика построения вероятностного многорегионального демографического прогноз России до 2050 г. Согласно прогнозу к 2050 медианная численность составит 134,9 млн человек при 90% доверительном интервале от 125,8 млн до 147,4 млн человек. Медианный возраст возрастает с 39,4 лет в 2019 г. до 44,3 лет (41,7 – 47,8) в 2050 г. Однако перспективный медианный возраст (оцененный к базовому 2018 г.) растет до 39,8 (33,7–43,8). Полученные нами оценки показывают, что оптимистические сценарии демографического развития, это сценарии наиболее оптимистических 5-10% из анализируемых нами, демографических траекторий.

English Abstract: In this work, we develop and test a methodology for constructing a probabilistic multi-regional demographic forecast of Russia until 2050. According to the forecast, by 2050 the median population will be 134.9 million people with a 90% confidence interval from 125.8 million to 147.4 million people. The median age increases from 39.4 years in 2019 to 44.3 years (41.7 - 47.8) in 2050, however, the promising median age (estimated by the base year 2018) grows to 39.8 (33, 7–43.8). Our estimates show that the optimistic scenarios of demographic development are the scenarios of the most optimistic 5-10% of the demographic trajectories that we analyze.

Note: Downloadable document is in Russian.

Keywords: demography, probabilistic demographic forecast, multi-regional demographic forecast, life expectancy, old age threshold, age and sex structure of the population, regional differentiation, демография, вероятностный демографический прогноз, многорегиональный демографический прогноз

Suggested Citation

Shulgin, Sergey and Scherbov, Sergei, Демографическое прогнозирование и анализ демографической неоднородности России (Population Forecasting and Analysis of Demographic Heterogeneity of Russia) (March 4, 2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3594516 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3594516

Sergey Shulgin (Contact Author)

Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Administration under the President of the Russian Federation (RANEPA) - Institute of Applied Economic Research ( email )

Russia

Sergei Scherbov

Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Administration under the President of the Russian Federation (RANEPA) - Institute of Applied Economic Research ( email )

Russia

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