Age, Death Risk, and the Design of an Exit Strategy: A Guide for Policymakers and for Citizens Who Want to Stay Alive

14 Pages Posted: 14 May 2020

See all articles by Andrew J. Oswald

Andrew J. Oswald

University of Warwick - Department of Economics; IZA Institute of Labor Economics

Nattavudh Powdthavee

University of Warwick

Abstract

Some commentators argue for a fairly general release from COVID-19 lockdown. That has a troubling flaw. It ignores the fatality risks that will then be faced by citizens in midlife and older. This paper provides information on the strong age-pattern in the risk of death from three countries (China, Italy, the UK). If politicians want an imminent removal of the lockdown, the safest approach in our judgment would be a rolling age-release strategy combined with the current principle of social distancing. But even if that is not the policy adopted, citizens need to be shown graphs of the kind in this paper. Honest guidance ought to be given to those in midlife and beyond. Governments have to allow people to understand their personal risk after any release from lockdown.

Keywords: coronavirus, labor market, recession, COVID-19

JEL Classification: I18, J13, K38, H75

Suggested Citation

Oswald, Andrew J. and Powdthavee, Nattavudh, Age, Death Risk, and the Design of an Exit Strategy: A Guide for Policymakers and for Citizens Who Want to Stay Alive. IZA Discussion Paper No. 13221, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3596688 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3596688

Andrew J. Oswald (Contact Author)

University of Warwick - Department of Economics ( email )

Coventry CV4 7AL
United Kingdom
523510 (Phone)

IZA Institute of Labor Economics

Schaumburg-Lippe-Str. 7 / 9
Bonn, D-53072
Germany

Nattavudh Powdthavee

University of Warwick ( email )

Gibbet Hill Rd.
Coventry, West Midlands CV4 8UW
United Kingdom
+44 (0)2476 528240 (Phone)

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