Fatalism, Beliefs, and Behaviors During the Covid-19 Pandemic

61 Pages Posted: 26 May 2020 Last revised: 16 Sep 2022

See all articles by Jesper Akesson

Jesper Akesson

The Behavioralist

Sam Ashworth-Hayes

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Robert W. Hahn

Technology Policy Institute; University of Oxford, Smith School

Robert Metcalfe

University of Chicago - Becker Friedman Institute for Economics

Itzhak Rasooly

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Date Written: May 2020

Abstract

Little is known about how people’s beliefs concerning the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) influence their behavior. To shed light on this, we conduct an online experiment (n = 3,610) with US and UK residents. Participants are randomly allocated to a control group or to one of two treatment groups. The treatment groups are shown upperor lower-bound expert estimates of the infectiousness of the virus. We present three main empirical findings. First, individuals dramatically overestimate the dangerousness and infectiousness of COVID-19 relative to expert opinion. Second, providing people with expert information partially corrects their beliefs about the virus. Third, the more infectious people believe that COVID-19 is, the less willing they are to take protective measures, a finding we dub the “fatalism effect”. We develop a formal model that can explain the fatalism effect and discuss its implications for optimal policy during the pandemic.

Suggested Citation

Akesson, Jesper and Ashworth-Hayes, Sam and Hahn, Robert W. and Metcalfe, Robert and Rasooly, Itzhak, Fatalism, Beliefs, and Behaviors During the Covid-19 Pandemic (May 2020). NBER Working Paper No. w27245, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3609698

Jesper Akesson (Contact Author)

The Behavioralist ( email )

United Kingdom

Sam Ashworth-Hayes

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Robert W. Hahn

Technology Policy Institute ( email )

1401 Eye St. NW
Suite 505
Washington, DC 20005
United States

University of Oxford, Smith School ( email )

Oxford
United Kingdom

Robert Metcalfe

University of Chicago - Becker Friedman Institute for Economics ( email )

Chicago, IL 60637
United States

Itzhak Rasooly

affiliation not provided to SSRN

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