Estimating and Forecasting Disease Scenarios for Covid-19 with an Sir Model

150 Pages Posted: 10 Jun 2020 Last revised: 11 Mar 2023

See all articles by Andrew Atkeson

Andrew Atkeson

University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Karen A. Kopecky

Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

Tao A. Zha

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta; Emory University

Date Written: June 2020

Abstract

This paper presents a procedure for estimating and forecasting disease scenarios for COVID-19 using a structural SIR model of the pandemic. Our procedure combines the flexibility of noteworthy reduced-form approaches for estimating the progression of the COVID-19 pandemic to date with the benefits of a simple SIR structural model for interpreting these estimates and constructing forecast and counterfactual scenarios. We present forecast scenarios for a devastating second wave of the pandemic as well as for a long and slow continuation of current levels of infections and daily deaths. In our counterfactual scenarios, we find that there is no clear answer to the question of whether earlier mitigation measures would have reduced the long run cumulative death toll from this disease. In some cases, we find that it would have, but in other cases, we find the opposite — earlier mitigation would have led to a higher long-run death toll.

Suggested Citation

Atkeson, Andrew G. and Kopecky, Karen A. and Zha, Tao A., Estimating and Forecasting Disease Scenarios for Covid-19 with an Sir Model (June 2020). NBER Working Paper No. w27335, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3621841

Andrew G. Atkeson (Contact Author)

University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) - Department of Economics ( email )

Box 951477
Los Angeles, CA 90095-1477
United States

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) ( email )

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Karen A. Kopecky

Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland ( email )

East 6th & Superior
Cleveland, OH 44101-1387
United States

Tao A. Zha

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta ( email )

1000 Peachtree Street N.E.
Atlanta, GA 30309-4470
United States
404-521-8353 (Phone)
404-521-8956 (Fax)

Emory University ( email )

201 Dowman Drive
Atlanta, GA 30322
United States

Do you have negative results from your research you’d like to share?

Paper statistics

Downloads
236
Abstract Views
797
Rank
234,367
PlumX Metrics