When Social Influence Promotes the Wisdom of Crowds

43 Pages Posted: 13 Aug 2020 Last revised: 30 Apr 2021

See all articles by Abdullah Almaatouq

Abdullah Almaatouq

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)

M. Amin Rahimian

University of Pitttsburgh; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)

Jason W. Burton

Birkbeck, University of London

Abdulla Alhajri

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)

Date Written: June 22, 2020

Abstract

Whether, and under what conditions, groups exhibit "crowd wisdom" has been a major focus of research across the social and computational sciences. Much of this work has focused on the role of social influence in promoting the wisdom of the crowd versus leading the crowd astray, resulting in conflicting conclusions about how the social network structure determines the impact of social influence. Here, we demonstrate that it is not enough to consider the network structure in isolation. Using theoretical analysis, numerical simulation, and reanalysis of four experimental datasets (totaling 2,885 human subjects), we find that the wisdom of crowds critically depends on the interaction between (i) the centralization of the social influence network and (ii) the distribution of the initial, individual estimates. By adopting a framework that integrates both the structure of the social influence and the distribution of the initial estimates, we bring previously conflicting results under one theoretical framework and clarify the effects of social influence on the wisdom of crowds.

Keywords: Wisdom of Crowds, Collective Estimation, Social Influence, Collective Intelligence

JEL Classification: D85, C92

Suggested Citation

Almaatouq, Abdullah and Rahimian, M. Amin and Burton, Jason W. and Alhajri, Abdulla, When Social Influence Promotes the Wisdom of Crowds (June 22, 2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3633309 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3633309

Abdullah Almaatouq

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) ( email )

77 Massachusetts Avenue
50 Memorial Drive
Cambridge, MA 02139-4307
United States

M. Amin Rahimian (Contact Author)

University of Pitttsburgh ( email )

135 N Bellefield Ave
Pittsburgh, PA 15260
United States

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) ( email )

77 Massachusetts Avenue
50 Memorial Drive
Cambridge, MA 02139-4307
United States

Jason W. Burton

Birkbeck, University of London ( email )

Malet st.
Bloomsbury
London
United Kingdom

Abdulla Alhajri

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) ( email )

77 Massachusetts Avenue
50 Memorial Drive
Cambridge, MA 02139-4307
United States

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