Optimal Lockdown in a Commuting Network

37 Pages Posted: 29 Jun 2020 Last revised: 25 Jun 2023

See all articles by Pablo Fajgelbaum

Pablo Fajgelbaum

University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) - Department of Economics

Amit Khandelwal

Columbia University - Columbia Business School, Finance; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); Bureau for Research and Economic Analysis of Development (BREAD); Jameel Poverty Action Lab (JPAL)

Wookun Kim

Southern Methodist University (SMU) - Department of Economics

Cristiano Mantovani

Universitat Pompeu Fabra

Edouard Schaal

CREI and Universitat Pompeu Fabra

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: June 2020

Abstract

We study optimal dynamic lockdowns against Covid-19 within a commuting network. Our framework integrates canonical spatial epidemiology and trade models, and is applied to cities with varying initial viral spread: Seoul, Daegu and NYC-Metro. Spatial lockdowns achieve substantially smaller income losses than uniform lockdowns. In NYM and Daegu—with large initial shocks—the optimal lockdown restricts inflows to central districts before gradual relaxation, while in Seoul it imposes low temporal but large spatial variation. Actual commuting reductions were too weak in central locations in Daegu and NYM, and too strong across Seoul.

Suggested Citation

Fajgelbaum, Pablo and Khandelwal, Amit Kumar and Kim, Wookun and Mantovani, Cristiano and Schaal, Edouard, Optimal Lockdown in a Commuting Network (June 2020). NBER Working Paper No. w27441, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3637742

Pablo Fajgelbaum (Contact Author)

University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) - Department of Economics ( email )

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Amit Kumar Khandelwal

Columbia University - Columbia Business School, Finance ( email )

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HOME PAGE: http://www0.gsb.columbia.edu/faculty/akhandelwal/

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) ( email )

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HOME PAGE: http://www.nber.org/people/amit_khandelwal

Bureau for Research and Economic Analysis of Development (BREAD) ( email )

Duke University
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United States

Jameel Poverty Action Lab (JPAL) ( email )

66 bis avenue Jean Moulin
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Wookun Kim

Southern Methodist University (SMU) - Department of Economics ( email )

Dallas, TX 75275
United States
2147683237 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://www.wookunkim.com

Cristiano Mantovani

Universitat Pompeu Fabra ( email )

Ramon Trias Fargas, 25-27
Barcelona, E-08005
Spain

Edouard Schaal

CREI and Universitat Pompeu Fabra ( email )

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