Global Smartphones Sales May Have Peaked
21 Pages Posted: 30 Jun 2020
Date Written: May 2020
Abstract
Global smartphone sales may have peaked. After reaching nearly 1.5 billion units in 2016, global smartphone sales have since declined, contributing negatively to world trade in 2019 and suggesting that the global market may now be saturated. This paper develops a simple model to forecast smartphone sales, which shows that sales are likely to decline further. As tech companies shift to embedded services (cloud computing, content subscriptions, and financial services), the impact on global trade may also be shifting in favor of services exports mostly from advanced economies.
Keywords: Economic integration, Service exports, Economic analysis, Developing countries, Capital stocks, global supply chains, global trade, tech cycle, WP, replacement cycle, smartphones, smartphone, service export, advanced economy
JEL Classification: F6, F14, L86, L63, E01, F1, F15, F13, O11
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation