Global Smartphones Sales May Have Peaked

21 Pages Posted: 30 Jun 2020

See all articles by Joannes Mongardini

Joannes Mongardini

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Aneta Radzikowski

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Date Written: May 2020

Abstract

Global smartphone sales may have peaked. After reaching nearly 1.5 billion units in 2016, global smartphone sales have since declined, contributing negatively to world trade in 2019 and suggesting that the global market may now be saturated. This paper develops a simple model to forecast smartphone sales, which shows that sales are likely to decline further. As tech companies shift to embedded services (cloud computing, content subscriptions, and financial services), the impact on global trade may also be shifting in favor of services exports mostly from advanced economies.

Keywords: Economic integration, Service exports, Economic analysis, Developing countries, Capital stocks, global supply chains, global trade, tech cycle, WP, replacement cycle, smartphones, smartphone, service export, advanced economy

JEL Classification: F6, F14, L86, L63, E01, F1, F15, F13, O11

Suggested Citation

Mongardini, Joannes and Radzikowski, Aneta, Global Smartphones Sales May Have Peaked (May 2020). IMF Working Paper No. 20/70, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3638518

Joannes Mongardini (Contact Author)

International Monetary Fund (IMF) ( email )

700 19th Street NW
Washington, DC 20431
United States

Aneta Radzikowski

International Monetary Fund (IMF) ( email )

700 19th Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20431
United States

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