Staggered Health Policy Adoption: Spillover Effects and Their Implications.

67 Pages Posted: 7 Aug 2020 Last revised: 19 Apr 2023

See all articles by Vadim Elenev

Vadim Elenev

Johns Hopkins Carey Business School

Luis Quintero

Johns Hopkins University - Carey Business School

Alessandro Rebucci

Johns Hopkins University - Carey Business School; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); National University of Singapore (NUS) - Asian Bureau of Finance and Economic Research (ABFER)

Emilia Simeonova

Johns Hopkins University - Carey Business School

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Date Written: March 22, 2023

Abstract

This paper investigates the direct and spillover effects on mobility caused by the staggered adoption of Stay-at-Home orders (SHOs) implemented by U.S. counties to contain the spread of COVID-19. We find that mobility in neighboring counties declines by a third to a half as much as in the counties that first implement the SHOs. Further, these spillovers are concentrated in counties that share media markets with treated counties. Using directional mobility data, we find that declines in internal mobility in the neighbor counties account for a much larger proportion of the overall decline in mobility than decreases in traffic originating in the treated county and headed to the neighbor. Together, these results provide strong evidence that SHOs operate through information sharing and voluntary social distancing. Based on our estimates and a simple model of staggered SHO adoption, we construct counterfactual scenarios that separate the impact of policy coordination from that of adoption timing. We demonstrate that staggered implementation of SHO policies can yield mobility reductions that are larger than coordinated but delayed SHO policy adoption.

Note: Funding: Hopkins Business of Health Initiative.

Declaration of Interest: None to declare

Keywords: COVID-19, Smart-phone-based Mobility Data, Media Markets, Non Pharmaceutical Interventions, Place-based Policies, Spillovers, Stay Home Orders, Voluntary Social Distancing

JEL Classification: H73, I18, R12

Suggested Citation

Elenev, Vadim and Quintero, Luis and Rebucci, Alessandro and Simeonova, Emilia, Staggered Health Policy Adoption: Spillover Effects and Their Implications. (March 22, 2023). Johns Hopkins Carey Business School Research Paper No. 20-06, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3657594 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3657594

Vadim Elenev

Johns Hopkins Carey Business School ( email )

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Luis Quintero (Contact Author)

Johns Hopkins University - Carey Business School ( email )

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Alessandro Rebucci

Johns Hopkins University - Carey Business School ( email )

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Emilia Simeonova

Johns Hopkins University - Carey Business School ( email )

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