Dietary Intakes As Potential Risk Factors for COVID-19 Mortality: A Multicountry Ecological Bayesian Regression Analysis

29 Pages Posted: 5 Aug 2020

See all articles by MoezAlIslam Faris

MoezAlIslam Faris

University of Sharjah - College of Health Sciences; University of Sharjah

Haitham Jahrami

Arabian Gulf University

Nicola Luigi Bragazzi

University of Parma

Mohamed Buheji

International Inspiration Economy Project

Farah Naja

American Uiversity of Beirut

Date Written: July 22, 2020

Abstract

Background: Case-fatality rate (CFR) of the COVID-19 pandemic varied from one country to another. We aimed to describe the association between the global mortality rates of COVID-19 cases (as expressed in terms of CFR) in different countries and dietary intakes of different food groups.

Methodology: We used an ecological study design. Based on data from a total of 144 countries, we applied the Bayesian regression model, using the Random-walk Metropolis-Hastings sampling. Food availability data for 144 countries we obtained from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. The food balance sheet was downloaded for the analysis; with a total of ten food groups were included and expressed in terms of kilocalories per person per day. Food commodity availability was compared against the CFR values using Bayesian regression analysis.

Results: The results suggest that COVID-19 case-fatality rates were associated with cereal grains, oils and fats, sugars, meats, dairy and eggs, fruits and vegetables, and starchy roots expressed in term so f kilocalories per capita per day.

Conclusion: Our findings imply that nutritional factors available at the country level could have a role in the mortality resulted from the COVID-19 pandemic. Local public health authorities have the responsibility to issue balanced healthy eating recommendations.

Note: Funding: None to declare

Declaration of Interest: None to declare

Keywords: Bayesian analysis; COVID-19; Dietary intakes; Ecological study; Food groups

Suggested Citation

Faris, MoezAlIslam and Jahrami, Haitham and Bragazzi, Nicola Luigi and Buheji, Mohamed and Naja, Farah, Dietary Intakes As Potential Risk Factors for COVID-19 Mortality: A Multicountry Ecological Bayesian Regression Analysis (July 22, 2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3658660 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3658660

MoezAlIslam Faris (Contact Author)

University of Sharjah - College of Health Sciences ( email )

University of Sharjah ( email )

Sharjah
United Arab Emirates
0562979628 (Phone)
27272 (Fax)

Haitham Jahrami

Arabian Gulf University ( email )

Road 2904
Building 293
Manama, Manama 329
Bahrain

Nicola Luigi Bragazzi

University of Parma ( email )

Mohamed Buheji

International Inspiration Economy Project ( email )

Bahrain

Farah Naja

American Uiversity of Beirut ( email )

Beirut, 0236
Lebanon

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