Dietary Intakes As Potential Risk Factors for COVID-19 Mortality: A Multicountry Ecological Bayesian Regression Analysis
29 Pages Posted: 5 Aug 2020
Date Written: July 22, 2020
Abstract
Background: Case-fatality rate (CFR) of the COVID-19 pandemic varied from one country to another. We aimed to describe the association between the global mortality rates of COVID-19 cases (as expressed in terms of CFR) in different countries and dietary intakes of different food groups.
Methodology: We used an ecological study design. Based on data from a total of 144 countries, we applied the Bayesian regression model, using the Random-walk Metropolis-Hastings sampling. Food availability data for 144 countries we obtained from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. The food balance sheet was downloaded for the analysis; with a total of ten food groups were included and expressed in terms of kilocalories per person per day. Food commodity availability was compared against the CFR values using Bayesian regression analysis.
Results: The results suggest that COVID-19 case-fatality rates were associated with cereal grains, oils and fats, sugars, meats, dairy and eggs, fruits and vegetables, and starchy roots expressed in term so f kilocalories per capita per day.
Conclusion: Our findings imply that nutritional factors available at the country level could have a role in the mortality resulted from the COVID-19 pandemic. Local public health authorities have the responsibility to issue balanced healthy eating recommendations.
Note: Funding: None to declare
Declaration of Interest: None to declare
Keywords: Bayesian analysis; COVID-19; Dietary intakes; Ecological study; Food groups
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