How Much Does Covid-19 Increase with Mobility? Evidence from New York and Four Other Us Cities

31 Pages Posted: 28 Jul 2020 Last revised: 16 Aug 2020

See all articles by Edward L. Glaeser

Edward L. Glaeser

Harvard University - Department of Economics; Brookings Institution; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Caitlin Gorback

University of Pennsylvania

Stephen J. Redding

Princeton University

Date Written: July 2020

Abstract

How effective are restrictions on geographic mobility in limiting the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic? Using zip code data for Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, New York (NYC), and Philadelphia, we estimate that total COVID-19 cases per capita decrease on average by approximately 20 percent for every ten percentage point fall in mobility between February and May 2020. To address endogeneity concerns, we instrument for travel by the share of workers in remote work friendly occupations, and find a somewhat larger average decline of COVID-19 cases per capita of 27 percent. Using weekly data by zip code for NYC and a panel data specification including week and zip code fixed effects, we estimate a similar average decline of around 17 percent, which becomes larger when we measure mobility using NYC turnstile data rather than cellphone data. We find substantial heterogeneity across both space and over time, with stronger effects for NYC, Boston and Philadelphia than for Atlanta and Chicago, and the largest estimated coefficients for NYC in the early stages of the pandemic.

Keywords: Cities, COVID-19, mobility

JEL Classification: H12, I12, J17, R41

Suggested Citation

Glaeser, Edward L. and Gorback, Caitlin and Redding, Stephen J., How Much Does Covid-19 Increase with Mobility? Evidence from New York and Four Other Us Cities (July 2020). CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP15050, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3661393

Edward L. Glaeser (Contact Author)

Harvard University - Department of Economics ( email )

Littauer Center
Room 315A
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States
617-496-2150 (Phone)
617-496-1722 (Fax)

Brookings Institution

1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW
Washington, DC 20036-2188
United States

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Caitlin Gorback

University of Pennsylvania

Philadelphia, PA 19104
United States

Stephen J. Redding

Princeton University ( email )

Princeton, NJ 08544-1021
United States

HOME PAGE: http://www.princeton.edu/~reddings/

Do you have negative results from your research you’d like to share?

Paper statistics

Downloads
0
Abstract Views
225
PlumX Metrics